UFC 129

[l am anthrax]

Being a fanatic of not only the UFC but pro MMA in general I decided to make this topic.

Ill give my thoughts and predictions of the main card as well as the Spike TV prelims and I want to hear yours as well.  

Spike TV Card

Welterweight bout: Nate Diaz vs. Rory MacDonald

My pick: Diaz by submission in the second round.

Rationale: Diaz has superior grappling to MacDonald as well as superior boxing. MacDonald does not have a great wrestling background so I believe that will allow Diaz to take him down and submit him.  Lack of a experience for MacDonald will play a big factor.

Welterweight bout: Sean Pierson vs. Jake Ellenberger

My pick: Pierson by TKO In the first or second round.

Rationale: Riding a long win streak all by similar styles.  To be honest I am unfamiliar with both of the fighters.

Main Card

Lightweight bout: Mark Bocek vs. Ben Henderson

My pick: Henderson by unanimous decision.

Rationale: Henderson Is a former title holder in the WEC and in his last fight he looked alright against the super-talented Anthony Pettis (that is untill he got caught with the nasty kick that everyone puts in their sigs). With only 2 losses on his record and his rep on the line after the kick, he will come in hungry and able to showcase superior striking and the ability to keep Mark from utilizing his BJJ.

Light Heavyweight bout:Randy Couture vs. Lyoto Machida

My pick: Machida by unanimous decision.

Rationale: As much as I love and respect Randy, we cannot escape the fact that he is 47.  While I think that he is both talented and extremely fit for a fighter, especially at his age I do not think that he will be able to deal with the speed and elusiveness of Machida.  Randy likes to tie people up against the cage and on the ground and wear down his opponents with his strength and wrestling, but I don't believe that he will be able to do that in this fight.  Simply because Machida is to damn fast and randy will not be able to shoot in for a take down or close the distance fast enough.  Machida will pick randy apart from the outside as he did with Rishad and pull out a victory.  

Light Heavyweight bout: Vladimir Matyushenko vs. Jason Brilz

My Pick: Matyushenko by unanimous decision.

Rationale: Both of these fighters have a strong wrestling base and it has the potential to go either way, however I believe that Matyushenko has both experience and control power over Brilz. Whoever is able to get top control in the first round will come out with the victory.  

Featherweight Championship bout: José Aldo © vs. Mark Hominick

My pick: Aldo by KO in the second round

Rationale: Aldo will chop Hominick down with his insanely powerful leg kicks in the first round which will slow Hominicks movement enough for Aldo to land a big strike.  While I believe Hominick is a very dangerous opponent for Aldo, being that he is the most dangerous striker he has faced, he does not have the speed coupled with the power that Aldo has.  It will hopefully be a striking battle, and if that occurs Aldo will be able to land more strikes because of his agility.  

Welterweight Championship bout: Georges St-Pierre © vs. Jake Shields

My Pick: GSP by unanimous decision OR submission in the 4th round.

Rationale: While Jake Shields is a very big test for GSP, this should be a pretty easy win for GSP.  It will be a similar to the Koshcheck fight in which GSP used his superior boxing to stop the threat of a takedown and also to exploit the hole in the striking game of Jake.  This fight will take place against the cage in the clinch and on the feet.  Jake has little to no hope of any type of submission in those locations and he does not have any sort of one-shot knockout power if a lucky punch were to get through.  GSP does a great job of fighting smart fights by exploiting holes in peoples game.  Being a one dimentional fighter, Jake does not have a good chance to win, simply because George knows what he is lookign to do.  The biggest reason I am giving Jake such a little chance of success in this fight is largely to do with his performance in his last fight against Martin Kampmann.  Despite him winning (via split-decision) It was a sloppy performance against a much less dangerous opponent.  Jake was not only unable to easily control Martin on the ground and was also not able to take the STRIKER to the ground.  If you cannot take Kampmann down at will, then you will not be able to take GSP down at all.  Another Part of that fight that made me second guess Sheilds is that after three rounds of mostly ground fighting Jake was visibly gassed.  He blamed his poor cardio to a large weight cut which he will have to make again for this championship fight, bringing his cardie into question.  The lack of solid cardio could open up the door for gsp to try for a submission in the final rounds just to make a statement.  

I am no expert, nor do I claim to be one.

Just a fan.

Now I want to hear what you guys think about this card.  

If my analysis receives a large enough response I will do this for more upcoming UFC events as well as other promotions.

[Mike (0BR)]

GSP's jab will destroy shields just as it did Koscheck

[l am anthrax]

Jakes face will have a resemblance to ground beef.

[Adam|Note]

Mike got it in one, Shields wont want to stand and will try to out wrestle GSP ultimately putting himself in more danger so i'll go with GSP by submission 2nd round.

Aldo knockout 2nd round.

I don't care for any other fights. Machida is a boring fighter and Diaz is an over confident tool.

[Octavarium]

GSP to win by submission? You're severely underestimating Shield's ground game. He's easily the best BJJ practitioner at this weightclass perhaps in MMA. He is so so quick to gain the positions it's amazing. GSP will win though most likely.

Henderson vs Bocek should be amazing! Henderson has superior striking to Bocek and Bocek has superior BJJ to Henderson? You have that mixed up. If you've ever watched Henderson on the ground you'll realise how fast he is. At WEC48 he told Donald Cerrone he would beat him in the first round. He did so in I think 1:48. After destroying him with wrestling and about 20 strong knees to the legs, he took him down. There was a scramble and before Cerrone was even about to get up he had locked in a guillotine. Not to say bocek isn't good but Henderson is at least as good as him.

[Casey`]

He will win

[Flex]

lol scrap what i said got mixed up with him and frank mir

[Adam|Note]

gsp he beat broke lesner in a submission so him to win

0/10 terribad trolling.

[Mike (0BR)]

gsp he beat broke lesner in a submission so him to win

rolf

[Octavarium]

also if Randy manages to catch machida and pin him on the cage and just wear him out like he does then he can win. Plus machida drinks his own piss which is just rancid.

oh and I'll go for Jake Ellenburger. He is 24-5 with 15 kos where as Pierson is only 11-4 with 6 Kos and he's had thoughts of quitting MMa in the past. Ellenburger KO, 2nd Round

[Gareth l Rare]

See now i feel bad as i used to follow UFC and MMA like chronic but when i moved out 2years ago i stopped as i had no other way to watch tv

spent a year with basic tv channel 1-4 :( didnt even have 5 lol

So i cant comment on the matter

but if anyone is willing to give me a lil catch up sesion to bring me up to scratch id be more than grateful

vidz would be better :lol:

[Octavarium]

There's been a ot of events in 2 years... I suggest you just get on a torrent mission.

[l am anthrax]

gsp he beat broke lesner in a submission so him to win

l0l

See now i feel bad as i used to follow UFC and MMA like chronic but when i moved out 2years ago i stopped as i had no other way to watch tv

spent a year with basic tv channel 1-4 :( didnt even have 5 lol

So i cant comment on the matter

but if anyone is willing to give me a lil catch up sesion to bring me up to scratch id be more than grateful

vidz would be better :lol:

PM me and I can help bring you up to speed as well as give you an invite to a private torrent tracker (BTN) that has almost all UFC/Strikeforce events (from about 100 on in the case of the UFC).

Anyone else can feel free to pm me as well for invites.

I have 5 im willing to give out.

Its a TV show tracker.

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[Octavarium]

I find it really amusing that so many people are counting out Jake Shields... He really is amazing. He's won everything except a UFC title.

Chuck liddel has even predicted Shields to win it...

GSP to win, hopefully KO 3rd round. Shields comes in for single leg and recieves a kick to the face.

[d72]

Yeah, as much as Shields is a credible fighter I just do not see him matching up to GSP. At all.

In regards to Machida - Couture, I wanna see Couture win but I think Machida's gonna take it.

[Flex]

lol so theres no confusion i got confused with gsp with frank mir in the heat of the momment my bad

[6 9i]

GSP and Shield's gonna be close but I think GSP will take it...he's in his primeeee

[Smush]

I want GSP to win primarily because of the superfight slated to take place in the Fall with Anderson Silva.

I want Machida to win because I feel he is the kryptonite to Jon Jones' aggressive style.

UFC 130 and 131 are also going to be sweeeeeeet.

I'm surprised there are so many UFC fans out here in this forum, too bad no one makes threads about them.

[Octavarium]

Jon Jones is currently injured and has pulled out of UFC133. Phil Davies is taking his place against Rashard Evans. The winner of that will then face Jones when he's recovered and then Machida will get another chance in about 2 more fights. And Jon Jones will fuck him up too. As elusive as he is, jones closes distance so easily as he's so unorthadox and he has the longest reach in UFC, i think. Maybe Brock or Carwin match/beat him.

I do hope we see a finish from GSP this fight...

[Smush]

Ouch. News to me lol. Phil Davis is not ready for a chance at the title. He's not ready. His base is in wrestling, but his striking is yet to come to par with his wrestling. Jon Jones will be eventually beaten. I really hope it's by Machida and I hope Machida can knock Couture out as a farewell present for his retirement.

And Brock/Carwin/Cain/Dos Santos could destroy Jones IMO.

[Octavarium]

Agree about Phil Davies.

And those 4 could also smash BJ Penn, irrelevent listing different weightclasses. jon jones stands a chance against them all though and they're all too large to drop down to light heavyweight so he won't be losing that belt any time soon.

[gfdgfd]

lol so theres no confusion i got confused with gsp with frank mir in the heat of the momment my bad

silly billy!

[l am anthrax]

I want GSP to win primarily because of the superfight slated to take place in the Fall with Anderson Silva.

I want Machida to win because I feel he is the kryptonite to Jon Jones' aggressive style.

UFC 130 and 131 are also going to be sweeeeeeet.

I'm surprised there are so many UFC fans out here in this forum, too bad no one makes threads about them.

same here.

I love the response.

If you say UFC  its a instant debate.

Ill start doing this for upcoming events by posting a similar thread on fight week.

Ouch. News to me lol. Phil Davis is not ready for a chance at the title. He's not ready. His base is in wrestling, but his striking is yet to come to par with his wrestling. Jon Jones will be eventually beaten. I really hope it's by Machida and I hope Machida can knock Couture out as a farewell present for his retirement.

And Brock/Carwin/Cain/Dos Santos could destroy Jones IMO.

It might be too early for Phil becaue of his less than perfect standup.  Him vs Rishad would be a shitty fight imo, it would most likley be a wrestling match unless Rishad catches Phil with a well placed shot.

Also, I do not belive that Machida can put away Randy. He just has too much of an iron chin and while Machida does process KO power it is due to accurate strikes not powerful ones and randy has the head movement to not let an accurate strike get through.  The only time where Machida was able to KO was with Rishad and Thiago Silva.  In the Silva fight he used gravity to KO while Silva was down.  In the Rishad fight it was due to a swarm of punches that rocked him and then Machida landed a blow that was literally on the nerve that puts a person to sleep.  Not saying it wont happen, very unlikely IMO.

As far as the heavyweights and Bones, I don't know that we will ever see that.  First off if John Jones was to go to heavyweight, he would get wrecked because he would be the smallest in the cage by at least 20-30 pounds, so I don't think that will happen. Second, the only people in that list that could legitimately drop down to 205 would be Dos Santos and Cain.  With their recent success in that division I don't see either one of them dropping down, but if they clean out the division who knows.

As for the GSP vs. Anderson Silva super-fight. Im going to speculate fully after 129 because right now it looks as though Okami is set to fight Anderson next at UFC: Rio.  Cards always change so im not saying its impossible for his next fight to be Anderson, but I think that we might have to wait until after Anderson beats Okami (which he will).  I say this because I believe Dana and the Fritidas want to bring the fight to Rio with the biggest Brazilian name and have him win in exciting fashion in order to gain more business in Brazil. Remember the UFC is a business first and a sport second Just fact.

[Adam|Note]

I find it really amusing that so many people are counting out Jake Shields... He really is amazing. He's won everything except a UFC title.

Chuck liddel has even predicted Shields to win it...

GSP to win, hopefully KO 3rd round. Shields comes in for single leg and recieves a kick to the face.

You said Chucks prediction as if people should be shocked by it. "Liddell's opinion admittedly stems from his long history with Shields, who got his start in the sport by training with Liddell in San Luis Obispo, California."